HIV residual risk in Canada under a three‐month deferral for men who have sex with men
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In Canada, the deferral for men who have sex with men (MSM) was decreased from a permanent deferral to a 5-year then a 12-month deferral. Current HIV testing can detect an HIV infection in donated blood within 2 weeks of exposure; thus, a 12-month deferral may be unnecessarily restrictive. We aimed to estimate the residual risk of HIV if the deferral were further decreased to 3 months. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a deterministic model with stochastic Monte Carlo simulation, residual risk of HIV was the sum of testing error, assay sensitivity and window-period risks. Data inputs were estimated from donor surveillance, donor surveys and published data. Residual risk was modelled at baseline and using three scenarios: (1) most likely - non-compliance, HIV prevalence and incidence rates of MSM are unchanged; (2) optimistic - non-compliance improves by 50%; and (3) pessimistic - non-compliance, HIV prevalence and incidence rates of MSM all double. RESULTS: HIV residual risk at baseline was 1 in 36·0 million donations (95% CI 1 in 1 504 907 million, 10·5 million); in the most likely scenario 1 in 34·2 million (1 in 225 534 million, 8·7 million); in the optimistic scenario 1 in 36·0 million (1 in 282 618 million, 9·5 million); in the pessimistic scenario 1 in 16·7 million (1 in 39 469 million, 6·0 million). All confidence intervals overlapped. CONCLUSION: With very low modelled risk under a 12-month deferral, the additional risk with a 3-month deferral is very low. This is true even with a pessimistic scenario.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it