Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK I. Global Assessment and Outlook The major industrial countries are experiencing uneven recoveries from a synchronized global slowdown, which was driven by geopolitical factors in the first half of 2003. Recent evidence suggests that the economic growth disparities have been highly striking in the second half of the year. On a quarterly basis, the combined output of the member counties of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) - the 30 richest economies in the world - was estimated to have grown at an annual rate of 4 percent in the third quarter of 2003, following a 1.6 percent increase in the second quarter. However, the United States contributed 3 percentage points, or 75 percent, to the 4 percent OECD-wide growth the third quarter 2003. The United States economy expanded at an annual growth rate of 8.2 percent in the third quarter of 2003, after advancing by 3.3 percent and 1.4 percent in the first two quarters. Following a 0.8 percent decline in the second quarter, Canadian output increased by 3.6 percent in the third quarter of 2003. The Mexican economy shrank by 2 percent in the third quarter of 2003, after a 5.6 percent increase in the second quarter and a 2.4 percent decline in the first quarter. After a moderate recovery in 2002 at an average annual rate of just 0.2 percent, the Japanese economy experienced a solid recovery in 2003, growing by 3.6 percent in the second quarter and 2.4 percent in the third quarter. In the Euro Area, real output increased by 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 2003, following a decline at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the second quarter and two consecutive readings of zero growth in the previous quarters. With the exception of Portugal, all Euro-members registered positive output growth in the third quarter, ranging from 0.4 percent in the Netherlands to 3.2 percent in Finland. In the United Kingdom, output expanded by an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2003, after increasing 2.8 percent in the second quarter. Evidence from forward-looking economic data suggests that the world economy has staged a decisive recovery in the fourth quarter of 2003. News from all over the world about consumer confidence, purchasing managers' diffusion indices and other leading indicators have been more positive than expected at the end of the year. As we pointed out in our previous forecast, the world economy has entered a sustainable recovery led by the United States economy. The current desynchronized economic rebound in the industrial countries will end in 2006, when the divergences in output growth rates are expected to diminish (see Chart 1). The bright prospects for 2004-05 rest on an expected investment boom in the world's largest economies, which are expected to maintain the current global growth momentum. Leadership in the global economy has been passed to capital expenditures from consumer spending. The importance of business investment in the expected recovery becomes apparent when looking at the average growth performance of investment activities in the major industrial countries during the recessionary period 2001-02. Every major country experienced either a negative or modest two-year average growth rate in private investment during 2001-02 from 1999-2000: United States, -2.2 percent from 6.7 percent; Canada, 2.8 percent, from 6.4 percent; Euro Area, -1.7 percent from 5.4 percent; United Kingdom, 0.1 percent from 1.2 percent; Japan, -3 percent from 1 percent. In the next two years, the strength of the global economic upswing will be strongly linked to business expenditures on capital goods. According to the findings of the latest Ifo survey of business executives, global capital expenditures are revving up. In each country, domestic dynamic developments in the mix of consumption and investment as an engine of growth are expected to be the major factors which generate the convergent growth pattern among the industrial countries over the forecast horizon. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".