Reduced CaCO<sub>3</sub>Flux to the Seafloor and Weaker Bottom Current Speeds Curtail Benthic CaCO<sub>3</sub>Dissolution Over the 21st Century
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Results from a range of Earth System and climate models of various resolution run under high‐CO 2 emission scenarios challenge the paradigm that seafloor CaCO 3 dissolution will grow in extent and intensify as ocean acidification develops over the next century. Under the “business as usual,” RCP8.5 scenario, CaCO 3 dissolution increases in some areas of the deep ocean, such as the eastern central Pacific Ocean, but is projected to decrease in the Northern Pacific and abyssal Atlantic Ocean by the year 2100. The flux of CaCO 3 to the seafloor and bottom‐current speeds, both of which are expected to decrease globally through the 21st century, govern changes in benthic CaCO 3 dissolution rates over 53% and 31% of the dissolving seafloor, respectively. Below the calcite compensation depth, a reduced CaCO 3 flux to the CaCO 3 ‐free seabed modulates the amount of CaCO 3 material dissolved at the sediment‐water interface. Slower bottom‐water circulation leads to thicker diffusive boundary layers above the sediment bed and a consequent stronger transport barrier to CaCO 3 dissolution. While all investigated models predict a weakening of bottom current speeds over most of the seafloor by the end of the 21st century, strong discrepancies exist in the magnitude of the predicted speeds. Overall, the poor performance of most models in reproducing modern bottom‐water velocities and CaCO 3 rain rates coupled with the existence of large disparities in predicted bottom‐water chemistry across models hampers our ability to robustly estimate the magnitude and temporal evolution of anthropogenic CaCO 3 dissolution rates and the associated anthropogenic CO 2 neutralization.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".