Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life-history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the 'no effective mitigation' representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".