Signs of Moderate Recovery in the World Economy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The recession in the OECD area is projected to bottom out in the second half of 2009, a slow recovery in activity being projected to start towards the end of 2009, upturn trend which will gradually gather strength in 2009. There are, however, signs that the severity of the downturn is moderating, the actual prognoses indicating like possible for 2009 a growth of 0.7% in GDP at the level of OECD countries. A recovery already appears to be in motion in most large non-OECD countries, especially in China, Brazil, Russian Federation and India. In line with the world economy trend, the collapse in world trade in goods and services observed in the last quarter of 2008 intensified in the first quarter of 2009, but the trough in growth rates has likely been reached; positive quarterly growth rates are expected by the end of 2009.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".