Currency hedging and quantitative easing: Evidence from global bond markets
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We examine the influence of quantitative easing (QE) in the United States on hedging effectiveness and performance (E&P) of international bond portfolios. During the QE period, the bond portfolios have significantly lower excess returns and variances, and their excess returns (variances) are positive (negative) with the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed's) mortgage‐backed securities holdings and are less positive (less negative) with the Fed's Treasury holdings. E&P is higher for optimal versus full hedging during the QE versus pre‐QE period and differs for portfolios from developed and emerging countries. Results are robust using other hedging E&P measures and excluding countries with their own QEs implementations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it