Failure of the Rational Expectation: Argumentation, Logic and Suggestions on Supply-Side Management
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rational expectation is known as the sixth revolution in economics. Based on a brief review of rational expectation, this paper puts forward the proposition of failure of rational expectation. The so-called failure of rational expectation means that when the market entity predicts future events, it is impossible to form a completely accurate expectation and then adjust its actions accordingly due to incomplete information and other reasons. On the contrary, due to various irrational factors, the actions of the market entities based on individual ration sometimes may be mad and loss of control, producing devastating effects on the economic system. This paper expounds the concept and formation mechanism of the failure of rational expectation, and conducts a preliminary empirical analysis on this in combination with China’s economic practice. On this basis, it proposes that rational supply management, which the government can play a role in, should be combined to correct the failure of rational expectation and realize the dynamic balance and stability of the economic system.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".