Precision of exogenous post-stratification in small-area estimation based on a continuous national forest inventory
Bibliographic record
Abstract
National forest inventories (NFIs) are designed to provide accurate information on forest resources at the national and regional levels, but there is also a demand for such information at smaller spatial scales. Auxiliary data such as satellite imagery have been used to facilitate small-area estimation. The commonly used method, k-nearest neighbour (k-NN), provides a model-based estimator for small areas, but a design-unbiased estimator for the mean square error is not available. Post-stratification (PS) is an alternative approach to using auxiliary information that allows for design-based variance estimation. In a case study using real inventory data of the Finnish NFI, we applied this method to the municipality level to explore the lower limit to the area for which the key forest parameters, forest area and growing stock volumes, can be estimated with sufficient precision. For PS, we employed exogenous forest resources maps based on the previous NFI round. In the municipalities of the two study provinces, the relative standard errors of total volume estimates ranged from 2.3% to 26.9%. They were smaller than 10% for municipalities with an area of 390 km 2 or larger, corresponding to approximately 100 or more sample plots on forestland. We also demonstrated the usefulness of design-unbiased variance estimation in showing discrepancies between design-based PS and model-based k-NN estimates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".