Learning Disentangled Representations for CounterFactual Regression
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider the challenge of estimating treatment effects from observational data; and point out that, in general, only some factors based on the observed covariates X contribute to selection of the treatment T, and only some to determining the outcomes Y. We model this by considering three underlying sources of {X, T, Y} and show that explicitly modeling these sources offers great insight to guide designing models that better handle selection bias. This paper is an attempt to conceptualize this line of thought and provide a path to explore it further. In this work, we propose an algorithm to (1) identify disentangled representations of the above-mentioned underlying factors from any given observational dataset D and (2) leverage this knowledge to reduce, as well as account for, the negative impact of selection bias on estimating the treatment effects from D. Our empirical results show that the proposed method (i) achieves state-of-the-art performance in both individual and population based evaluation measures and (ii) is highly robust under various data generating scenarios.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it