Transfer Learning for Predicting Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia of Alzheimer’s Type based on 3D-Convolutional Neural Network
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Dementia of Alzheimer’s Type (DAT) is associated with a devastating and irreversible cognitive decline. As a pharmacological intervention has not yet been developed to reverse disease progression, preventive medicine will play a crucial role for patient care and treatment planning. However, predicting which patients will progress to DAT is difficult as patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) could either convert to DAT (MCI-C) or not (MCI-NC). In this paper, we develop a deep learning model to address the heterogeneous nature of DAT development. Structural magnetic resonance imaging was utilized as a single biomarker, and a three-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D-CNN) was developed. The 3D-CNN was trained using transfer learning from the classification of Normal Control and DAT scans at the source task. This was applied to the target task of classifying MCI-C and MCI-NC scans. The model results in 82.4% classification accuracy, which outperforms current models in the field. Furthermore, by implementing an occlusion map approach, we visualize key brain regions that significantly contribute to the prediction of MCI-C and MCI-NC. Results show the hippocampus, amygdala, cerebellum, and pons regions as significant to prediction, which are consistent with current understanding of disease. Finally, the model’s prediction value is significantly correlated with rates of change in clinical assessment scores, indicating the model is able to predict an individual patient’s future cognitive decline. This information, in conjunction with the identified anatomical features, will aid in building a personalized therapeutic strategy for individuals with MCI. This model could also be useful for selection of participants for clinical trials.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".