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Record W2996286957 · doi:10.1287/opre.2021.2114

Optimal Sequential Multiclass Diagnosis

2021· preprint· en· W2996286957 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenueOperations Research · 2021
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicAdvanced Statistical Process Monitoring
Canadian institutionsQueen's University
FundersUniversity of TorontoUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignQueen's University
KeywordsCurse of dimensionalityDimension (graph theory)Computer scienceHeuristicUnivariateMatrix (chemical analysis)Class (philosophy)StatisticExponential familyRank (graph theory)Mathematical optimizationMathematicsArtificial intelligenceMultivariate statisticsMachine learningStatisticsCombinatorics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

In multiclass classification, one faces greater uncertainty when the data fall near the decision boundary. To reduce the uncertainty, one can wait and collect more data, but this invariably delays the decision. How can one make an accurate classification as quickly as possible? The solution requires a multiclass generalization of Wald’s sequential hypothesis testing, but the standard formulation is intractable because of the curse of dimensionality in dynamic programming. In “Optimal Sequential Multiclass Diagnosis,” Wang shows that, in a broad class of practical problems, the reachable state space is often restricted on, or near, a set of low-dimensional, time-dependent manifolds. After understanding the key drivers of sparsity, the author develops a new solution framework that uses a low-dimensional statistic to reconstruct the high-dimensional state. This framework circumvents the curse of dimensionality, allowing efficient computation of the optimal or near-optimal policies for quickest classification with large numbers of classes.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.044
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch, Scholarly communication, Research integrity, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.447
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.044
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0040.001
Open science0.0020.004
Research integrity0.0000.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.553
GPT teacher head0.612
Teacher spread0.059 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it