Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness Pressures: The Case of Cement Trade
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The impact of unilateral carbon pricing on domestic industry is a central element in current policy debates dealing with mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. This is especially the case for industries that are both emission intensive and trade exposed. A poster child for these vulnerable industries is the cement industry. In this article, I examine the impact of British Columbia’s carbon tax on cement trade. I use quarterly data on volume of imports, exports, and net exports of cement between cement-producing Canadian provinces and the United States, as well as the world. Through a series of econometric models, findings suggest that net exports were reduced as a result of the policy. As a share of average domestic cement production, estimates point to reduced net exports between 13 and 18 percent. Further empirical investigation suggests that reductions in domestic production due to the policy stems from this trade effect, not reductions in domestic consumption. I therefore discuss policy options to address these competitiveness pressures in the cement industry.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".