Bayes-Adaptive Monte-Carlo Planning and Learning for Goal-Oriented Dialogues
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider a strategic dialogue task, where the ability to infer the other agent's goal is critical to the success of the conversational agent. While this problem can be naturally formulated as Bayesian planning, it is known to be a very difficult problem due to its enormous search space consisting of all possible utterances. In this paper, we introduce an efficient Bayes-adaptive planning algorithm for goal-oriented dialogues, which combines RNN-based dialogue generation and MCTS-based Bayesian planning in a novel way, leading to robust decision-making under the uncertainty of the other agent's goal. We then introduce reinforcement learning for the dialogue agent that uses MCTS as a strong policy improvement operator, casting reinforcement learning as iterative alternation of planning and supervised-learning of self-generated dialogues. In the experiments, we demonstrate that our Bayes-adaptive dialogue planning agent significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art in a negotiation dialogue domain. We also show that reinforcement learning via MCTS further improves end-task performance without diverging from human language.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it