Longitudinal Trends in the Direct Costs and Health Care Utilization Ascribable to Inflammatory Bowel Disease in the Biologic Era: Results From a Canadian Population–Based Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing. The total direct costs of IBD have not been assessed on a population-wide level in the era of biologic therapy. DESIGN: We identified all persons with IBD in Manitoba between 2005 and 2015, with each matched to 10 controls on age, sex, and area of residence. We enumerated all hospitalizations, outpatient visits and prescription medications including biologics, and their associated direct costs. Total and per capita annual IBD-attributable costs and health care utilization (HCU) were determined by taking the difference between the costs/HCU accrued by an IBD case and their controls. Generalized linear modeling was used to evaluate trends in direct costs and Poisson regression for trends in HCU. RESULTS: The number of people with IBD in Manitoba increased from 6,323 to 7,603 between 2005 and 2015. The total per capita annual costs attributable to IBD rose from $3,354 in 2005 to $7,801 in 2015, primarily driven by an increase in per capita annual anti-tumor necrosis factor costs, which rose from $181 in 2005 to $5,270 in 2015. There was a significant decline in inpatient costs for CD ($99 ± 25/yr. P < 0.0001), but not for ulcerative colitis ($8 increase ±$18/yr, P = 0.63). DISCUSSION: The direct health care costs attributable to IBD have more than doubled over the 10 years between 2005 and 2015, driven mostly by increasing expenditures on biological medications. IBD-attributable hospitalization costs have declined modestly over time for persons with CD, although no change was seen for patients with ulcerative colitis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".