Policy Forum: Newfoundland and Labrador's Debt Strategy—Waiting for a Saviour or Godot?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
When the government of Newfoundland and Labrador assumed office in late 2015, it declared that the expected deficit for the current fiscal year would be almost double that which was budgeted for by the predecessor government. The new government then adopted a very aggressive fiscal-policy stance in its first budget, tabled in April 2016. However, following the finance minister's resignation in July 2017, the government seemed to dramatically change its strategy, adopting a passive policy response to the worsening deficit situation. While in subsequent years Newfoundland and Labrador's annual deficit has fallen, its net and gross debt per capita have ballooned and reached new heights relative to Canada's other provinces. This article presents an in-depth investigation of this expansion and examines the probabilities of success, in the medium and long term, of the government's current fiscal strategy as a response to its deepening debt problem.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.015 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.013 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".