Trade Wars and the Disarray in the Global Trading System: Implications for the Philippines
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study uses the Caliendo and Parro ( 2015 ) multi-sector, multi-country, general equilibrium Ricardian trade model with national and international input-output linkages to assess the impact on welfare of higher tariffs due to the U.S.–China trade war in the case of the Philippines. A sample of 65 countries including a constructed rest of the world is used, with 31 ICIO tradeable and non-tradeable sectors and 2015 as the base year. The constructed scenario is of the U.S.–China tariff tit-for-tat and retaliatory measures taken by Mexico, Canada, EU, Russia, and Turkey against the United States during 2018. The findings show that the Philippines and others in the sidelines could incur larger welfare losses than those directly involved in the conflict, in contrast with the sanguine prediction of other models.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it