Forensic Investigation of Aboveground Storage Tank Failures during Hurricane Harvey Using Fragility Models
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study aims to understand the conditions and the mechanisms that led to aboveground storage tank (AST) failures during Hurricane Harvey. First, a detailed survey of the damage suffered by ASTs is performed using aerial imagery and governmental incident databases. Analysis of incidents identifies to two main failure modes: flotation due to flooding and floating roof failures due to rainfall. Next, fragility models are developed to assess the structural vulnerability of ASTs. An existing fragility model for the flotation of ASTs is improved to include hydrodynamic effects, while a new model based on buoyancy and drainage calculations is proposed for the failure of floating roofs. Finally, the fragility models are coupled with empirical data to ascertain the conditions that could have led to the observed failures during Harvey. Results indicate that in preparation for a storm, ASTs should be filled with product to prevent flotation and improve floating roof drainage. Results also highlight the importance of adequate terrain drainage to avoid water accumulation around ASTs that can lead to AST flotation or to inefficient roof drains.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it