Forensic Investigation of Aboveground Storage Tank Failures during Hurricane Harvey Using Fragility Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study aims to understand the conditions and the mechanisms that led to aboveground storage tank (AST) failures during Hurricane Harvey. First, a detailed survey of the damage suffered by ASTs is performed using aerial imagery and governmental incident databases. Analysis of incidents identifies to two main failure modes: flotation due to flooding and floating roof failures due to rainfall. Next, fragility models are developed to assess the structural vulnerability of ASTs. An existing fragility model for the flotation of ASTs is improved to include hydrodynamic effects, while a new model based on buoyancy and drainage calculations is proposed for the failure of floating roofs. Finally, the fragility models are coupled with empirical data to ascertain the conditions that could have led to the observed failures during Harvey. Results indicate that in preparation for a storm, ASTs should be filled with product to prevent flotation and improve floating roof drainage. Results also highlight the importance of adequate terrain drainage to avoid water accumulation around ASTs that can lead to AST flotation or to inefficient roof drains.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".