A Risk Score Including Carotid Plaque Inflammation and Stenosis Severity Improves Identification of Recurrent Stroke
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background and Purpose— In randomized trials of symptomatic carotid endarterectomy, only modest benefit occurred in patients with moderate stenosis and important subgroups experienced no benefit. Carotid plaque 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake on positron emission tomography, reflecting inflammation, independently predicts recurrent stroke. We investigated if a risk score combining stenosis and plaque 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose would improve the identification of early recurrent stroke. Methods— We derived the score in a prospective cohort study of recent (<30 days) non-severe (modified Rankin Scale score ≤3) stroke/transient ischemic attack. We derived the SCAIL (symptomatic carotid atheroma inflammation lumen-stenosis) score (range, 0–5) including 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose standardized uptake values (SUV max <2 g/mL, 0 points; SUV max 2–2.99 g/mL, 1 point; SUV max 3–3.99 g/mL, 2 points; SUV max ≥4 g/mL, 3 points) and stenosis (<50%, 0 points; 50%–69%, 1 point; ≥70%, 2 points). We validated the score in an independent pooled cohort of 2 studies. In the pooled cohorts, we investigated the SCAIL score to discriminate recurrent stroke after the index stroke/transient ischemic attack, after positron emission tomography-imaging, and in mild or moderate stenosis. Results— In the derivation cohort (109 patients), recurrent stroke risk increased with increasing SCAIL score ( P =0.002, C statistic 0.71 [95% CI, 0.56–0.86]). The adjusted (age, sex, smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, antiplatelets, and statins) hazard ratio per 1-point SCAIL increase was 2.4 (95% CI, 1.2–4.5, P =0.01). Findings were confirmed in the validation cohort (87 patients, adjusted hazard ratio, 2.9 [95% CI, 1.9–5], P <0.001; C statistic 0.77 [95% CI, 0.67–0.87]). The SCAIL score independently predicted recurrent stroke after positron emission tomography-imaging (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.52 [95% CI, 1.58–12.93], P =0.005). Compared with stenosis severity (C statistic, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.46–0.80]), prediction of post-positron emission tomography stroke recurrence was improved with the SCAIL score (C statistic, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.66–0.97], P =0.04). Findings were confirmed in mild or moderate stenosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.74 [95% CI, 1.39–5.39], P =0.004). Conclusions— The SCAIL score improved the identification of early recurrent stroke. Randomized trials are needed to test if a combined stenosis-inflammation strategy improves selection for carotid revascularization where benefit is currently uncertain.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".