P771 Increasing prevalence and direct health care cost of inflammatory bowel disease: A population-based evidence from a western Canadian province
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background More than 0.3% of the populations in Europe, North America, and Oceania live with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Canada has increasing prevalence trends of IBD with 1% of Canadians estimated to have IBD by 2030. Evidence about IBD prevalence and health care costs over time can contribute to health resources allocation and health care planning. Our study aimed to 1) estimate the prevalence and direct health care costs of IBD in the province of Saskatchewan (SK), Canada, and 2) test if trends in the prevalence and direct health care costs of IBD increased over two decades. Methods We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using administrative health data of SK between 1999/00 and 2016/17 fiscal years. A validated case definition was used to identify prevalent IBD cases. The costing method adopted by the Canadian Institute for Health Information was used to estimate direct health care costs in 2013/14 Canadian dollars among IBD cases. Generalised linear models (GLMs) with generalised estimating equations were used to test the trends. Negative binomial and gamma distributions were used to, respectively, model prevalence and health care cost trends. Sex and age group were covariates in all models; the Charlson comorbidity index was also included in the cost model. Annual prevalence rates and direct health care cost estimates with their 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were reported. Results In 2016, there were 6468 (Crohn’s disease: 3663 [56.63%], ulcerative colitis: 2805 [43.37%]) IBD cases ascertained in SK. The number of prevalent cases increased over the analysis period by 56%. The total direct health care costs increased from $7.8 million in 1999 to $50.8 million in 2016. The average annual IBD prevalence increased from 341/100,000 (95%CI 340–341) in 1999 to 664/100,000 (95%CI 663–665) in 2016, a 3.3% (95%CI 2.4–4.3) average annual increase. The total average annual direct health care costs of IBD increased from $1.8 (95%CI $1.6–2.0) thousand per patient in 1999 to $7.1 (95%CI $6.7–7.5) thousand per patient in 2016, an average annual increase of 9.2% (95% CI 8.5–9.8), Figure 1. Conclusion In the Canadian province of SK, prevalence and direct health care costs, respectively, tripled and quadrupled over two decades. Our results provide relevant information and analysis on the burden of IBD in SK. These findings are in agreement with previous studies from other provinces. The evidence of constant increasing prevalence and health care cost trends of IBD needs to be recognised by health care decision-makers to promote cost-effective health care policies at provincial and national levels and respond to the needs of patients living with IBD.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.014 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".