DOP11 Normalisation of faecal calprotectin within 12 months of diagnosis is associated with a reduced risk of disease progression in Crohn’s disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Faecal calprotectin (FC) demonstrates an excellent correlation with endoscopic inflammation. In addition, a treatment-decision algorithm for Crohn’s disease (CD) incorporating FC outperforms and improves 12-month mucosal healing compared with a strategy based on symptoms alone. The aim of this study was to determine whether normalisation of FC (<250 μg/g) within 12-months of diagnosis is associated with a reduction in disease progression in CD. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study performed at a tertiary IBD centre. All incident cases of CD diagnosed between 2005 and 2017 were identified. Patients with an FC measurement of >250 μg/g at diagnosis who also had at least 1 follow-up FC measured within the first 12-months of diagnosis and >12 months of follow-up were included. The primary endpoint was a composite of progression in Montreal disease behaviour (B1 to B2/3 or B2 to B3 or new perianal disease), surgery or hospitalisation. Results A total of 375 patients were included with a median follow-up of 5.3 years (IQR 3.1–7.4). Normalisation of FC (<250 μg/g) within 12 months of diagnosis was confirmed in 43.5% (n = 163/375) of the cohort. On multivariable Cox-proportional hazards regression analysis, individuals who normalised their FC within 12 months of diagnosis had a significantly lower risk of composite disease progression (HR 0.351, 95% CI 0.235–0.523, p < 0.001) (Figure 1). Cumulative rates of composite disease progression were 7.8%, 21.4% and 29.9% in those that normalised their FC vs. 22.8%, 50.7% and 60.5% in those that did not at 2, 5 and 7 years after diagnosis, respectively. In addition, normalisation of FC was the only predictor that remained significant for all the separate progression end-points (progression in Montreal behaviour / new perianal disease: HR 0.250, 95% CI 0.122–0.512, p < 0.001; hospitalisation: HR 0.346, 95% CI 0.217–0.553, p < 0.001; surgery: HR 0.370. 95% CI 0.181–0.755, p = 0.006). The strongest predictor of whether an individual normalised their FC within 12 months was the commencement of a biologic within 3 months of diagnosis (OR 4.288, 95% CI 1.585–11.0601, p = 0.004). Conclusion Normalisation of FC by 12-months of diagnosis is associated with a reduced risk of disease progression in CD. Our data provide strong support for implementation of treat-to-target strategies earlier than previously tested in Crohn’s disease. The immediate implication for healthcare providers and patients is that by ensuring resolution of mucosal inflammation - measured by proxy with faecal calprotectin, and regardless of other variables - within 1 year of diagnosis has a dramatic effect on disease course.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".