Use of two-point models in “Model choice in time-series studies of air pollution and mortality”
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this work, a new technique is proposed to study short-term exposure and adverse health effects. The presented approach uses hierarchical clusters with the following structure: each pair of two sequential days in 1 year is embedded in the year. We have 183 clusters per year with the embedded structure . Time-series analysis is conducted using a conditional Poisson regression with the constructed clusters as a stratum. Unmeasured confounders such as seasonal and long-term trends are not modelled but are controlled by the structure of the clusters. The proposed technique is illustrated using four freely accessible databases, which contain complex simulated data. These data are available as the compressed R workspace files. Results based on the simulated data were very close to the truth based on the presented methodology. In addition, the case-crossover method with 1-month and 2-week window, and a conditional Poisson regression on 3-day clusters as a stratum, was also applied to the simulated data. Difficulties (high type I error rate) were observed for the case-crossover method in the presence of high concurvity in the simulated data. The proposed methods using various forms of a stratum were further applied to the Chicago mortality data. The considered methods have often different qualitative and quantitative estimations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.036 | 0.055 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".