A Nonlinear Statistical Approach for Aeroelastic Response Prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Aging aircraft and combat aircraft that carry heavy external stores potentially face problems arising from nonlinearities in structure. An expert data mining system is proposed that is capable of predicting the asymptotic behavior of an aeroelastic system with structural nonlinearities represented by polynomial restoring forces or freeplay models. The input is represented only by a limited set of transient data. The output provides a long-term nonlinear aeroelastic response, and the prediction is made when certain rule-based reasoning conditions are satisfied. An attractive feature of this new approach is that no information about the system parameters is needed. In the prediction module, we propose two methods, based on nonlinear time series models and the unscented Kalman filter. To our knowledge, these approaches have not been reported so far for predicting the long-term nonlinear aeroelastic responses. Compared with the classical extended Kalman filter, the unscented filter does not require differentiability and can be applied to nonlinear aeroelastic models with freeplay and hysteresis. The performances of the expert data mining system are demonstrated for simulated data and wind-tunnel experimental aeroelastic data resulting from a two-degree-of-freedom airfoil oscillating in pitch and plunge.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".