Chromosome arm aneuploidies shape tumour evolution and drug response
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Chromosome arm aneuploidies (CAAs) are pervasive in cancers. However, how they affect cancer development, prognosis and treatment remains largely unknown. Here, we analyse CAA profiles of 23,427 tumours, identifying aspects of tumour evolution including probable orders in which CAAs occur and CAAs predicting tissue-specific metastasis. Both haematological and solid cancers initially gain chromosome arms, while only solid cancers subsequently preferentially lose multiple arms. 72 CAAs and 88 synergistically co-occurring CAA pairs multivariately predict good or poor survival for 58% of 6977 patients, with negligible impact of whole-genome doubling. Additionally, machine learning identifies 31 CAAs that robustly alter response to 56 chemotherapeutic drugs across cell lines representing 17 cancer types. We also uncover 1024 potential synthetic lethal pharmacogenomic interactions. Notably, in predicting drug response, CAAs substantially outperform mutations and focal deletions/amplifications combined. Thus, CAAs predict cancer prognosis, shape tumour evolution, metastasis and drug response, and may advance precision oncology.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".