Climate change risk perceptions and the problem of scale: evidence from cross-national survey experiments
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We examine the concept of spatial optimism, defined as the tendency for individuals to perceive climate change as less threatening to themselves than to people in geographically more distant locations. Existing studies find mixed evidence of this phenomenon, while the methods employed often fail to rule out confounding factors. To resolve these empirical and methodological tensions, we present results from a survey experiment fielded in nine countries spanning Europe, North America, and Asia. The survey finds that respondents systematically perceive climate change as a greater threat to the world than to themselves, in nine countries. However, while groups that may be considered more vulnerable to climate change often display higher levels of perceived overall risk, the survey finds evidence of spatial bias to be systematic across and within cases. Future research should apply this measurement strategy in more vulnerable countries and over time.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it