Individual-patient prediction of meningioma malignancy and survival using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Meningiomas are known to have relatively lower aggressiveness and better outcomes than other central nervous system (CNS) tumors. However, there is considerable overlap between clinical and radiological features characterizing benign, atypical, and malignant tumors. In this study, we developed methods and a practical app designed to assist with the diagnosis and prognosis of meningiomas. Statistical learning models were trained and validated on 62,844 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. We used balanced logistic regression-random forest ensemble classifiers and proportional hazards models to learn multivariate patterns of association between malignancy, survival, and a series of basic clinical variables-such as tumor size, location, and surgical procedure. We demonstrate that our models are capable of predicting meaningful individual-specific clinical outcome variables and show good generalizability across 16 SEER registries. A free smartphone and web application is provided for readers to access and test the predictive models (www.meningioma.app). Future model improvements and prospective replication will be necessary to demonstrate true clinical utility. Rather than being used in isolation, we expect that the proposed models will be integrated into larger and more comprehensive models that integrate imaging and molecular biomarkers. Whether for meningiomas or other tumors of the CNS, the power of these methods to make individual-patient predictions could lead to improved diagnosis, patient counseling, and outcomes.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".