Evaluation of A Phylogenetic Pipeline to Examine Transmission Networks in A Canadian HIV Cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Modern computational methods using patient Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) genetic sequences can model population-wide viral transmission dynamics. Accurate transmission inferences can play a critical role in the characterization of high-risk transmission clusters important for enhanced epidemiological control. We evaluated a phylogenetics-based analysis pipeline to infer person-to-person (P2P) infection dates and transmission relationships using 139 patient HIV-1 polymerase Sanger sequences curated by the Southern Alberta HIV Clinic. Parameter combinations tailored to HIV-1 transmissions were tuned with respect to inference accuracy. Inference accuracy was assessed using clinically confirmed P2P transmission patient data. The most accurate parameter settings correctly inferred 48.56% of the P2P relationships (95% confidence interval 63.89–33.33%), slightly lower than next-generation-sequencing methods. The infection date was correctly inferred 43.02% (95% confidence interval 49.89–35.63%). Several novel unsuspected transmission clusters of up to twelve patients were identified. An accuracy trade-off between inferring transmission relationships and infection dates was observed. Using clinically confirmed P2P transmission data as benchmark, our phylogenetic methods identified sufficient P2P transmission relationships using readily available low-resolution Sanger sequences. These approaches may give valuable information about HIV infection dynamics within a population and may be easily deployed to guide public health interventions, without a need for next generation sequencing technology.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".