Estimating the Risk of Human Herpesvirus 6 and Cytomegalovirus Transmission to Ugandan Infants from Viral Shedding in Saliva by Household Contacts
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6) and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections are common in early childhood. In a prospective Ugandan birth cohort study, most infants acquired HHV-6 (24/31; 77%) and CMV (20/30; 67%) during follow-up. To assess the transmission risk, we modeled a dose–response relationship between infant HHV-6 and CMV infections and weekly oral viral shedding by mothers and all other (“secondary”) children in the home. Oral viral loads that were shed by mothers and secondary children were significantly associated with HHV-6 but not CMV transmission. While secondary children had higher and more frequent HHV-6 shedding than their mothers, they had a lower per-exposure transmission risk, suggesting that transmission to maternal contacts may be more efficient. HHV-6 transmission was relatively inefficient, occurring after <25% of all weekly exposures. Although HHV-6 transmission often occurs following repeated, low dose exposures, we found a non-linear dose–response relationship in which infection risk markedly increases when exposures reached a threshold of > 5 log10 DNA copies/mL. The lack of association between oral CMV shedding and transmission is consistent with breastfeeding being the dominant route of infant infection for that virus. These affirm saliva as the route of HHV-6 transmission and provide benchmarks for developing strategies to reduce the risk of infection and its related morbidity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".