Predicting and preventing relapse of depression in primary care
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background Postnatal depression necessitates timely and effective interventions to mitigate adverse maternal and child outcomes in the short term and over the life course. British south Asian women with depression are often underserved and undertreated due to stigma, language barriers, and cultural barriers. This trial aimed to test the clinical efficacy of a culturally adapted, group cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT)-based intervention, the Positive Health Programme (PHP), delivered by non-specialist health workers for postnatal depression in British south Asian women. Methods This study was a randomised controlled trial, with culturally adapted recruitment and an internal pilot, comparing the PHP (intervention group) with treatment as usual (control group) in British south Asian women with postnatal depression. The study was conducted at five centres across the UK. Participants were aged 16 years or older, met the DSM-5 criteria for depression, and had infants aged 0–12 months. Randomisation (1:1) was stratified by centre, with a block size of 18, and was done through an independent remote telephone service. The PHP was delivered over 12 group sessions in 4 months. The primary outcome was recovery from depression (defined as a Hamilton Depression Rating Scale [HDRS] score ≤7) at 4 months after randomisation, and an assessment was also done at 12 months. Analysis was on an intention-to-treat basis including only participants with non-missing outcome data; we used a random-effects logistic regression model including fixed covariates for study site, baseline depression severity (HDRS score), parity, and years in education and a random coefficient for therapy group. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN (ISRCTN10697380). Findings Of the 9136 individuals approached for recruitment between Feb 8, 2017, and March 29, 2020, 4296 women were eligible for and consented to screening, among whom 732 screened positive and were randomly allocated: 368 (50%) to the PHP group and 364 (50%) to the control group. Participants were mostly of Pakistani (397 [55%] of 719 with available data), Indian (176 [24%]), or Bangladeshi ethnicity (127 [18%]), with an overall mean age of 31·4 years (SD 5·2), with their youngest infants having a mean age of 23·6 weeks (14·2). At 4 months from randomisation, the proportion of participants who showed recovery from depression on the HDRS was significantly higher in the PHP group (138 [49%] of 281) than in the control group (105 [37%] of 281; adjusted odds ratio 1·97 [95% CI 1·26–3·10]). At the 12-month follow-up, this difference was no longer significant (1·02 [95% CI 0·62–1·66]). Interpretation In British south Asian women with postnatal depression, a culturally adapted group CBT-based intervention could aid in quicker recovery from depression compared with treatment as usual. Further research is needed to identify how to sustain the treatment effect and establish strategies for scale-up.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it