Las medidas proteccionistas arancelarias y las exportaciones de bienes españolas
Bibliographic record
Abstract
El repunte de las tensiones proteccionistas globales de los ultimos anos esta acarreando, despues de decadas de descensos generalizados, incrementos de los aranceles que estan danando la evolucion del comercio internacional y afectan, por tanto, a las perspectivas del sector exterior de la economia espanola. En este articulo se lleva a cabo una estimacion del efecto de los aranceles sobre las exportaciones de bienes extracomunitarias no energeticas espanolas a partir de datos desagregados por pais de destino y tipo de producto. Los resultados muestran que un incremento de los aranceles afecta negativamente tanto a las posibilidades de exportacion como, de manera persistente, a los valores exportados. De acuerdo con las estimaciones realizadas, un aumento del 1 % de los aranceles a la importacion impuestos por otro pais para un producto espanol implica una reduccion de las exportaciones nominales de alrededor del 0,6 %. Los riesgos proteccionistas subrayan el papel de la Union Europea en la promocion de acuerdos comerciales internacionales, como los recientemente alcanzados con Japon, Canada y MERCOSUR.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".