Predicting drug properties with parameter-free machine learning: pareto-optimal embedded modeling (POEM)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The prediction of absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADMET) of small molecules from their molecular structure is a central problem in medicinal chemistry with great practical importance in drug discovery. Creating predictive models conventionally requires substantial trial-and-error for the selection of molecular representations, machine learning (ML) algorithms, and hyperparameter tuning. A generally applicable method that performs well on all datasets without tuning would be of great value but is currently lacking. Here, we describe pareto-optimal embedded modeling (POEM), a similarity-based method for predicting molecular properties. POEM is a non-parametric, supervised ML algorithm developed to generate reliable predictive models without need for optimization. POEM’s predictive strength is obtained by combining multiple different representations of molecular structures in a context-specific manner, while maintaining low dimensionality. We benchmark POEM relative to industry-standard ML algorithms and published results across 17 classifications tasks. POEM performs well in all cases and reduces the risk of overfitting.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".