Predicting drug properties with parameter-free machine learning: pareto-optimal embedded modeling (POEM)
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The prediction of absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADMET) of small molecules from their molecular structure is a central problem in medicinal chemistry with great practical importance in drug discovery. Creating predictive models conventionally requires substantial trial-and-error for the selection of molecular representations, machine learning (ML) algorithms, and hyperparameter tuning. A generally applicable method that performs well on all datasets without tuning would be of great value but is currently lacking. Here, we describe pareto-optimal embedded modeling (POEM), a similarity-based method for predicting molecular properties. POEM is a non-parametric, supervised ML algorithm developed to generate reliable predictive models without need for optimization. POEM’s predictive strength is obtained by combining multiple different representations of molecular structures in a context-specific manner, while maintaining low dimensionality. We benchmark POEM relative to industry-standard ML algorithms and published results across 17 classifications tasks. POEM performs well in all cases and reduces the risk of overfitting.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it