Job changing and internal mobility: Insights into the “declining duo” from Canadian administrative data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Considerable research focuses on why internal migration rates are declining across most of the Western world. Several studies also look at why people are less likely to change jobs than they were in the past. In this paper, we look at the prospect of declining economic returns as an explanation for the joint decline in both phenomena in Canada. We use the Canadian Employer‐Employee Dynamics Database, a linked job–individual–family–firm data set, to look at the 5‐year income trajectories for Canadian workers who changed job and province of residence (movers) in 1997, 2002, and 2007. We compare these returns with those of job switchers who did not move (nonmover job switchers) and with those that changed neither jobs nor province (nonmover nonjob switchers). We find that the mover's premium, defined as the increase in income that accompanies either a job change or a geographical move, has decreased over time and argue that this may help explain why internal migration and labour fluidity have been declining.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.031 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.023 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".