GP.01 Childhood obesity and multiple sclerosis susceptibility: a Mendelian randomization study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Observational studies have reported an association between childhood obesity and a higher risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). However, the difficulties to fully account for confounding and long recall periods make causal inference from these studies challenging. The objective of this study was to assess the contribution of childhood obesity to the development of MS through Mendelian randomization, which uses genetic associations to minimize the risk of confounding. Methods: We selected 23 independent genetic variants strongly associated with childhood body mass index (BMI) in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) which included 47,541 children. The corresponding effects of these variants on risk of MS were obtained from a GWAS of 14,802 MS cases and 26,703 controls. Standard two-sample Mendelian randomization methods were performed, with additional sensitivity analyses to assess the likelihood of bias from genetic pleiotropy. Results: The inverse-variance weighted MR analysis revealed that one standard deviation increase in childhood BMI increased odds of MS by 26% (odds ratio=1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.45, p=0.001). There was no significant heterogeneity across the individual estimates. Sensitivity analyses were consistent with the main findings and provided no evidence of pleiotropy. Conclusions: This study provides genetic support of a role for increased childhood BMI in the development of MS.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".