Agent-Based Simulation to Improve Policy Sensitivity of Trip-Based Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The most common travel demand model type is the trip-based model, despite major shortcomings due to its aggregate nature. Activity-based models overcome many of the limitations of the trip-based model, but implementing and calibrating an activity-based model is labor-intensive and running an activity-based model often takes long runtimes. This paper proposes a hybrid called MITO (Microsimulation Transport Orchestrator) that overcomes some of the limitations of trip-based models, yet is easier to implement than an activity-based model. MITO uses microsimulation to simulate each household and person individually. After trip generation, the travel time budget in minutes is calculated for every household. This budget influences destination choice; i.e., people who spent a lot of time commuting are less likely to do much other travel, while people who telecommute might compensate by additional discretionary travel. Mode choice uses a nested logit model, and time-of-day choice schedules trips in 1-minute intervals. Three case studies demonstrate how individuals may be traced through the entire model system from trip generation to the assignment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".