Tracking insect outbreaks: a case study of community-assisted moth monitoring using sex pheromone traps
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Insect outbreaks can cover vast geographic areas making it onerous to cost-effectively monitor populations to address management or ecological questions. Community science (or citizen science), which entails engaging the public to assist with data collection, provides a possible solution to this challenge for the spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens), a major defoliating pest in North America. Here, we lay out the Budworm Tracker Program, a contributory community science program developed to help monitor spruce budworm moths throughout eastern Canada. The program outsources free pheromone trap kits to volunteers who periodically check and collect moths from their traps throughout the budworm flight period, then return them in a prepaid envelope to the organizers. Over three years, the program engaged an average of 216–375 volunteers and yielded a data return rate of 68%–89%, for a total of 16 311–54 525 moths per year. Volunteer retention among years was 71%–89%. Data from this program offer compelling evidence for the range of long-distance moth dispersal. Although our program was designed for spruce budworm, this template could easily be adapted for forestry, urban forestry, and agricultural systems to monitor any of the numerous organisms for which there is an established trapping method.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".