OLS-Regression Forecasting Confidence Intervals Capture Rates: Precision Profiling in the Forecasting Model Selection Process
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Forecasting creates projections into an uncertain future. To understand the decision-making implications of the forecast, confidence intervals [CIs] are required. This seems simple enough. However, considering the details of the computations that underlie generating forecasting CIs, one encounters a practical disconnect that can create a decision-making paradox. In the OLS 2-parameter linear regression [OLSR] case, there are two forecasting Models that are often employed: {The Uni-variate Time Series & The Standard two-variable Regression Y:X}. Further, for each of these two Models individually, there are three (1-FPE[α]) %CIs Versions: {Excel, Fixed Effects & Random Effects} each of which is oriented around the same OLSR-forecast value. Given this component configuration, a paradox emerges because each of the forecasting models, {TS or Y:X}, individually produces a forecast with a markedly difference precision profile over the three CI-Versions. In our experience, this is paradoxical as forecasters assume that as the forecasts are the same in each model-class, their Capture Rate—the percentage of time that the actual future values are IN the CIs—should also be the same. To address this seeming paradox, we develop, detail, and illustrate a two-stage OLSR Decomposition and Screening protocol, termed: the [D&S-Triage] protocol that has the following components: (i) Stage A: decomposition of the Model & Version factor-sets to better understand the implications of their Precision differences, and (ii) Stage B: focusing on inferentially significant forecasting model components, create a multilevel quality-algorithm to identify a forecasting model-set that addresses the Quality of the Capture Rate that are the best in their class.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.065 | 0.351 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".