Exploring records of typhoon variability in eastern China over the past 2000 years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract How climate controls tropical cyclone variability has critical implications for modern human society but is not well understood due to the short length of observational records. To probe this knowledge gap, we present a synthesis of intense typhoon activity from the northwestern Pacific over the past 2000 years, which is supported by a new, well-resolved tidal flat sedimentary record from the Jiangsu coast, eastern China. The record reveals nine intervals of typhoon frequency, indicating that the frequency of intense typhoons has varied on multi-centennial scales over the past 2000 years. Our synthesis shows strong evidence for a seesaw pattern of intense typhoon frequency between southeastern China and Japan and Korea. This pattern can be explained by the El Niño and Southern Oscillation–East Asian Monsoon–sea surface temperature hypothesis, which potentially explains the basin-wide typhoon climate in the northwestern Pacific region. A shift in typhoon activity was identified from 550–280 to 280–50 yr B.P. during the Little Ice Age, when typhoon activity changed from active to quiescent or vice versa. Centennial-scale shifts in Intertropical Convergence Zone and Western Pacific Warm Pool sea surface temperature are likely to be the primary forcing mechanisms driving this shift. Results obtained here provide links between typhoon activity and the El Niño and Southern Oscillation, the East Asian Monsoon, and the Western Pacific Warm Pool sea surface temperature, and therefore improve our ability to fully assess intense typhoon activity in future climate warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".