Shifting economic activity to services has limited potential to reduce global environmental impacts due to the household consumption of labour
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The tertiary (or ‘service’) sector is commonly identified as a relatively clean part of the economy. Accordingly, sustainable development policy routinely invokes ‘tertiarization’—a shift from primary and secondary sectors to the tertiary sector—as a means of decoupling economic growth from environmental damages. However, this argument does not account for environmental impacts related to the household consumption of tertiary sector employees. Here we show using a novel analytical framework that when the household consumption of labour is treated as a necessary and endogenous input to production, the environmental impacts of all sectors converge. This shift in perspective also exacerbates existing disparities in the attribution of environmental impact from economic activity among developed and developing economies. Our findings suggest that decoupling of economic activity from environmental impacts is unlikely to be achieved by transitioning to a service-based economy alone, but rather, that reducing environmental damages from economic activity may require fundamental changes to the scale and composition of consumption across all economic sectors.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".