Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is not a good proxy for liquid biopsies of tumor tissues for early detection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The important conclusion that ctDNA is a mediocre proxy for liquid biopsies of tumor tissues for early detection was reached after new data were published recently in Nature Genetics. These data have shown that most mutations found in ctDNA are not related to tumor tissues but rather to the precancerous condition clonal hematopoiesis. Previously, our group has analyzed the sensitivity of the ctDNA test for early detection of cancer and concluded that the achievable sensitivity, especially for small tumors, is not enough to have clinical value. Now, the new data have shown a serious compromise in specificity. We believe that scientists who are interested in early cancer diagnostics should be aware of the limitations of this test, in both sensitivity and specificity. Our work may prompt further work aiming to alleviate these important issues in the cancer diagnostics field.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".