Minimal Patient Clinical Variables to Accurately Predict Stress Echocardiography Outcome: Validation Study Using Machine Learning Techniques

BACKGROUND: Stress echocardiography is a well-established diagnostic tool for suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Cardiovascular risk factors are used in the assessment of the probability of CAD. The link between the outcome of stress echocardiography and patients' variables including risk factors, current medication, and anthropometric variables has not been widely investigated. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to use machine learning to predict significant CAD defined by positive stress echocardiography results in patients with chest pain based on anthropometrics, cardiovascular risk factors, and medication as variables. This could allow clinical prioritization of patients with likely prediction of CAD, thus saving clinician time and improving outcomes. METHODS: A machine learning framework was proposed to automate the prediction of stress echocardiography results. The framework consisted of four stages: feature extraction, preprocessing, feature selection, and classification stage. A mutual information-based feature selection method was used to investigate the amount of information that each feature carried to define the positive outcome of stress echocardiography. Two classification algorithms, support vector machine (SVM) and random forest classifiers, have been deployed. Data from 529 patients were used to train and validate the framework. Patient mean age was 61 (SD 12) years. The data consists of anthropological data and cardiovascular risk factors such as gender, age, weight, family history, diabetes, smoking history, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, prior diagnosis of CAD, and prescribed medications at the time of the test. There were 82 positive (abnormal) and 447 negative (normal) stress echocardiography results. The framework was evaluated using the whole dataset including cases with prior diagnosis of CAD. Five-fold cross-validation was used to validate the performance of the framework. We also investigated the model in the subset of patients with no prior CAD. RESULTS: The feature selection methods showed that prior diagnosis of CAD, sex, and prescribed medications such as angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker were the features that shared the most information about the outcome of stress echocardiography. SVM classifiers showed the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity and was achieved with three features. Using only these three features, we achieved an accuracy of 67.63% with sensitivity and specificity 72.87% and 66.67% respectively. However, for patients with no prior diagnosis of CAD, only two features (sex and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker use) were needed to achieve accuracy of 70.32% with sensitivity and specificity at 70.24%. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that machine learning can predict the outcome of stress echocardiography based on only a few features: patient prior cardiac history, gender, and prescribed medication. Further research recruiting higher number of patients who underwent stress echocardiography could further improve the performance of the proposed algorithm with the potential of facilitating patient selection for early treatment/intervention avoiding unnecessary downstream testing.

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