Ice-Jam Flood Risk Assessment and Hazard Mapping under Future Climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In cold-region environments, ice-jam floods (IJFs) can result in high water levels in rivers to overtop levees, leading to devastating floods. Since climatic conditions play an important role in ice-jam flooding, there is a growing concern among property developers, insurance companies, government agencies, and communities on future IJF probabilities, especially in the context of changing climate. This study presents a stochastic framework for future IJF risk assessment and hazard mapping. Future hydrological conditions derived from a physically based hydrological model (forced with meteorological inputs from the Canadian regional climate model driven by two atmospheric-ocean general circulation climate models) were coupled to a fully dynamic hydraulic river-ice model to evaluate ice-jam scenarios and subsequent backwater-level profiles for the 2041–2070 period along the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada. The modeling results show that future IJF risk will be lower and flood inundations less severe due to projected changes in climate, hydrology, and ice phenology in the 2041–2070 period compared to the baseline period of 1971–2000. However, extreme IJF events are still probable and can flood a considerable area of the town.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".