A method yielding comparable estimates of the fraternal birth order and female fecundity effects in male homosexuality
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The fraternal birth order effect (FBOE) is the finding that older brothers increase the probability of homosexuality in later-born males, and the female fecundity effect (FFE) is the finding that the mothers of homosexual males produce more offspring than the mothers of heterosexual males. In a recent paper, Khovanova proposed a novel method for computing independent estimates of these effects on the same samples and expressing the magnitude and direction of the effects in the same metric. In her procedure, only families with one or two sons are examined, and daughters are ignored. The present study investigated the performance of Khovanova's method using archived data from 10 studies, comprising 14 samples totalling 5390 homosexual and heterosexual subjects. The effect estimate for the FBOE showed that an increase from zero older brothers to one older brother is associated with a 38% increase in the odds of homosexuality. By contrast, the effect estimate for the FFE showed that the increase from zero younger brothers to one younger brother is not associated with any increase in the odds of homosexuality. The former result supports the maternal immune hypothesis of male homosexuality; the latter result does not support the balancing selection hypothesis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.066 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".