Modified Disease Activity Score at 3 Months Is a Significant Predictor for Rapid Radiographic Progression at 12 Months Compared With Other Measures in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Progressive rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is responsible for joint damage causing disabilities, but there is no agreement on which disease measures best predict radiographic progression. We aimed to determine which disease activity measures, including the disease activity score, the modified disease activity score in 28 joints with C-reactive protein testing (M-DAS28-CRP), the Clinical Disease Activity Index, and the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index, at baseline and 3 months best predicted rapid radiographic progression (RRP) in patients with early RA. METHODS: Data were used from PREMIER, a 2-year, multicenter, double-blind, active comparator controlled study with methotrexate (MTX)-naïve patients with RA and active disease for less than 3 years. Treatments included adalimumab plus oral MTX, adalimumab, or oral MTX. Only patients in the MTX arm were analyzed in this study. RRP was defined as a change in the modified total Sharp score of less than 3.5 at month 12. The logistic regression analysis assessed the impact of measures at baseline and 3 months on RRP at 12 months. Best cutoff points of the M-DAS28-CRP were also estimated by using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: A total of 149 patients were included (female patients: n = 113 [75.8%]; positive rheumatoid factor: n = 127 [85.2%]; mean [SD] age: 52.9 [13.3] years; mean [SD] disease duration: 0.8 [0.9] year; mean [SD] M-DAS28-CRP: 6.3 [0.9]). After adjusting for potential confounders, only the M-DAS28-CRP at baseline (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.29; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.70-6.36) and 3 months (AOR = 2.56; 95% CI: 1.43-4.56) strongly predicted RRP at 12 months. M-DAS28-CRP of 4.5 and 2.6 at baseline and 3 months, respectively, maximized positive and negative predictive values for prediction of RRP. CONCLUSION: The M-DAS28-CRP was a stronger predictor at baseline and 3 months for RRP compared with other disease activity measures. Removing tender joint count and patient global assessment from the DAS28-CRP improves prediction of RRP.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".