Bayesian source reconstruction of an anomalous Selenium-75 release at a nuclear research institute
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Atmospheric transport and dispersion models are important tools in radiation protection as they help to estimate the impact of radionuclides released into the atmosphere. In particular, such models can be used in combination with radionuclide observations to estimate unknown source term parameters, or to improve source term estimates obtained through other methods. In this paper, a Bayesian inference system was used to determine the source term parameters and their corresponding credible intervals of a real-world anomalous 75Se release at a nuclear facility in Belgium. Furthermore, a formulation is proposed that not only takes into account true detections, but also true instrumental non-detections, false alarms and real misses. The Bayesian inference system is able to correctly determine the known source location. The Bayesian inference is then refined by fixing the release location and by making stronger assumptions about the release period.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it