Variational Inference With Parameter Learning Applied to Vehicle Trajectory Estimation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present parameter learning in a Gaussian variational inference setting using only noisy measurements (i.e., no groundtruth). This is demonstrated in the context of vehicle trajectory estimation, although the method we propose is general. The letter extends the Exactly Sparse Gaussian Variational Inference (ESGVI) framework, which has previously been used for large-scale nonlinear batch state estimation. Our contribution is to additionally learn parameters of our system models (which may be difficult to choose in practice) within the ESGVI framework. In this letter, we learn the covariances for the motion and sensor models used within vehicle trajectory estimation. Specifically, we learn the parameters of a white-noise-on-acceleration motion model and the parameters of an Inverse-Wishart prior over measurement covariances for our sensor model. We demonstrate our technique using a 36 km dataset consisting of a car using lidar to localize against a high-definition map; we learn the parameters on a training section of the data and then show that we achieve high-quality state estimates on a test section, even in the presence of outliers. Lastly, we show that our framework can be used to solve pose graph optimization even with many false loop closures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".