Predicting the strength of urban-rural clines in a Mendelian polymorphism along a latitudinal gradient
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Cities are emerging as models for addressing the fundamental question of whether populations evolve in parallel to similar environments. Here, we examine the environmental factors that drive the evolution of parallel urban-rural clines in a Mendelian trait—the cyanogenic antiherbivore defense of white clover (Trifolium repens). Previous work suggested urban-rural gradients in frost and snow depth could drive the evolution of reduced hydrogen cyanide (HCN) frequencies in urban populations. Here, we sampled over 700 urban and rural clover populations across 16 cities along a latitudinal transect in eastern North America. In each population, we quantified changes in the frequency of genotypes that produce HCN, and in a subset of the cities we estimated the frequency of the alleles at the two genes (CYP79D15 and Li) that epistatically interact to produce HCN. We then tested the hypothesis that cold climatic conditions are necessary for the evolution of cyanogenesis clines by comparing the strength of clines among cities located along a latitudinal gradient of winter temperature and frost exposure. Overall, half of the cities exhibited urban-rural clines in the frequency of HCN, whereby urban populations evolved lower HCN frequencies. Clines did not evolve in cities with the lowest temperatures and greatest snowfall, supporting the hypothesis that snow buffers plants against winter frost and constrains the formation of clines. By contrast, the strongest clines occurred in the warmest cities where snow and frost are rare, suggesting that alternative selective agents are maintaining clines in warmer cities. Some clines were driven by evolution at only CYP79D15, consistent with stronger and more consistent selection on this locus than on Li. Together, our results demonstrate that urban environments often select for similar phenotypes, but different selective agents and targets underlie the evolutionary response in different cities.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it