Esophageal Cancer: An Updated Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Database Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Esophageal cancer is the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths and the eighth most common cancer worldwide with a 5-year survival rate of less than 25%. Here we report the incidence, risk factors and treatment options that are available currently, and moving into the future. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database made available by the National Cancer Institute in the USA. Specifically we extracted data from the years 2004 - 2015. RESULTS: In total we identified 23,804 patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma and 13,919 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Males were at an increased risk of developing both types of esophageal cancer when compared to females. Most cases of adenocarcinoma were diagnosed as poorly differentiated grade III (42%), and most cases of squamous cell carcinoma were diagnosed as moderately differentiated grade II (39.5%). The most common stage of presentation for both adenocarcinoma (36.9%) and squamous cell (26.8%) carcinoma was stage IV. The worst outcomes for adenocarcinoma were noted with grade III tumors (hazard ratio (HR): 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.44 - 1.68, P value: < 0.01), stage IV tumors (HR: 3.58, 95% CI: 3.33 - 3.85, P value: < 0.01) and those not treated with surgery (HR: 2.54, 95% CI: 2.44 - 2.65, P value: < 0.01). For squamous cell carcinoma, the worst outcomes were noted with grade III tumors (HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.23 - 1.49, P value: < 0.01), stage IV tumors (HR: 2.12, 95% CI: 1.94 - 2.32, P value: <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma in the USA is steadily on the rise. Conversely, the incidence of squamous cell carcinoma has been continually declining. While white males had an increased incidence of both types of esophageal cancer, a higher proportion of African Americans suffered from squamous cell carcinoma. Despite the wide spread use of proton pump inhibitors, adenocarcinoma continues to be a major public health concern.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.012 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".