Age-Related and Gender-Related Increases in Colorectal Cancer Mortality Rates in Brazil Between 1979 and 2015: Projections for Continuing Rises in Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: Brazil is the largest country in South America. Although a developing nation, birth rates have been decreasing in the last few decades, while its overall population is undergoing lifestyle changes and ageing significantly. Moreover, Brazil has had increasingly high mortality rates related to colorectal cancer (CRC). Herein, we investigated whether the Brazilian population is exhibiting increasing mortality rates related to colon cancer (CC) or rectal cancer (RC) in recent years. METHODS: We examined data from the Brazilian Federal Government from 1979 to 2015 to determine whether CRC mortality and the population ageing process may be associated. RESULTS: Our mathematical modelling suggests that mortality rates related to CC and RC events in the Brazilian population may increase by 79% and 66% in the next 24 years, respectively. This finding led us to explore the mortality rates for both diseases in the country, and we observed that the highest levels were in the south and southeast regions from the year 2000 onwards. CC events appear to decrease life expectancy among people during their second decade of life in recent years, whereas RC events induced decreases in life expectancy in those aged >30 years. Additionally, both CC and RC events seem to promote significant mortality rates in the male population aged > 60 years and living in the southern states. CONCLUSION: Our dataset suggests that both CC and RC events may lead to a significantly increasing number of deaths in the Brazilian male population in coming years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".