Mass fallout and stopover duration of migratory Blackpoll Warblers ( Setophaga striata ) in Bermuda after Hurricane Nicole
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Strong weather systems can force large numbers of migrating songbirds to take refuge in areas they would otherwise fly over, an event called a “fallout.” On 13 October 2016, Hurricane Nicole made landfall over Bermuda during the fall songbird migration, and provided an opportunity to document a potential fallout. We visited 10 sites in order to (1) compare the abundance of migrant songbirds immediately before and after the hurricane, (2) identify the most abundant fallout songbird species, and (3) record the stopover duration of the most abundant fallout songbird(s). We found a significant increase in the number of migrant songbirds at three sites when comparing before (n = 40 individuals) with after (n = 93 individuals) Hurricane Nicole. Blackpoll Warblers (Setophaga striata) were absent at all five sites sampled before Nicole, but present at seven of the eight sites (88%) sampled after Nicole. Peak Blackpoll Warbler abundance (n = 173) was recorded the day after the storm followed by a significant reduction in numbers over a 2-week period. Our study emphasizes the disruptive nature of hurricanes on migrating Blackpoll Warblers en route to their wintering grounds, and the importance of remote oceanic islands to fallout migrants taking transoceanic routes. Keywords Bermuda, Blackpoll Warbler, fallout, hurricanes, islands, migration, Setophaga striata, weather Resumen Irrupcion extraordinaria masiva y duracion de la escala migratoria de Setophaga striata en las Bermudas despues del huracan Nicole—Fuertes eventos climatologicos pueden obligar a un gran numero de paseriformes migratorios a refugiarse en areas sobre las que normalmente pasarian de largo, un evento conocido como irrupcion extraordinaria o fallout. El 13 de octubre de 2016, el huracan Nicole toco tierra sobre las Bermudas durante la migracion otonal de paseriformes y proporciono una oportunidad para documentar una posible irrupcion de este tipo. Se visitaron 10 sitios para (1) comparar la abundancia de paseriformes migratorios inmediatamente antes y despues del huracan; (2) identificar las especies de paseriformes mas abundantes y (3) registrar la duracion de la escala migratoria de los paseriformes mas abundantes durante dicha irrupcion. Encontramos un aumento significativo en el numero de paseriformes migratorios en tres sitios, al comparar antes (n = 40 individuos) con despues (n = 93 individuos) del huracan Nicole. Setophaga striata estuvo ausente en los cinco sitios muestreados antes de Nicole, pero presente en siete de los ocho sitios (88%) muestreados despues del huracan. La abundancia maxima de esta especie (n = 173) se registro el dia siguiente de la tormenta seguido de una disminucion significativa de ese valor durante un periodo de 2 semanas. Nuestro estudio enfatiza la naturaleza disruptiva de los huracanes en individuos migratorios de Setophaga striata en ruta a sus areas de invernada y la importancia de islas oceanicas remotas para individuos irruptores migratorios que tienen rutas transoceanicas. Palabras clave Bermudas, clima, huracanes, irrupcion extraordinaria, islas, migracion, Setophaga striata Resume Importance et duree des haltes migratoires forcees des Parulines rayees (Setophaga striata) aux Bermudes apres le cyclone Nicole — Des evenements meteorologiques puissants peuvent obliger un grand nombre de passereaux migrateurs a se refugier dans des zones qu’ils auraient seulement survolees dans d’autres conditions. Il s’agit alors de haltes migratoires forcees parfois appelees « tombees » ou « pluies » d’oiseaux. Le 13 octobre 2016, le cyclone Nicole a touche les Bermudes au cours de la migration automnale des passereaux, ce qui a ensuite permis de documenter des haltes migratoires forcees. Nous avons visite 10 sites afin de : (1) comparer l’abondance des passereaux migrateurs immediatement avant et apres l’ouragan ; (2) identifier les especes de passereaux les plus abondantes ; et (3) enregistrer les durees de halte des especes de passereaux les plus abondants. Nous avons constate une augmentation significative du nombre de passereaux migrateurs sur trois sites en comparant les effectifs avant (n = 40 individus) et apres (n = 93 individus) le passage du cyclone Nicole. Les Parulines rayees (Setophaga striata) etaient absentes des cinq sites echantillonnes avant le cyclone, mais presentes dans sept des huit sites (88 %) echantillonnes apres. L’abondance maximale des Parulines rayees (n = 173) a ete enregistree le lendemain du passage du cyclone, elle a ete suivie d’une reduction importante des effectifs sur une periode de 2 semaines. Notre etude met l’accent sur l’effet perturbateur des cyclones sur les Parulines rayees en migration vers leurs aires d’hivernage et sur l’importance des iles oceaniques eloignees pour les haltes migratoires forcees des oiseaux empruntant des routes transoceaniques. Mots cles Bermudes, conditions meteorologiques, cyclones, haltes migratoires forcees, iles, migration, Paruline rayee, Setophaga striata
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".