“These Aren’t the Strains You’re Looking for”: Recovery Bias of Common Campylobacter jejuni Subtypes in Mixed Cultures
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Microbiological surveillance of the food chain plays a critical role in improving our understanding of the distribution and circulation of food-borne pathogens along the farm to fork continuum towards the development of interventions to reduce the burden of illness. The application of molecular subtyping to bacterial isolates collected through surveillance has led to the identification of strains posing the greatest risk to public health. Past evidence suggests that enrichment methods for Campylobacter jejuni, a leading bacterial foodborne pathogen worldwide, may lead to the differential recovery of subtypes, obscuring our ability to infer the composition of a mixed-strain sample and potentially biasing prevalence estimates in surveillance data. To assess the extent of potential selection bias resulting from enrichment-based isolation methods, we compared enriched and non-enriched isolation of mixed subtype cultures of C. jejuni, followed by subtype-specific enumeration using both colony plate-counts and digital droplet PCR. Results differed from the null hypothesis that similar proportions of C. jejuni subtypes are recovered from enrichment and non-enrichment protocols. Our results also indicated a significant effect of subtype cluster frequency on isolation frequency post-recovery, with the recovery of more common subtypes being consistently favoured. This bias was exacerbated when an enrichment step was included in the isolation procedure. Taken together, our results emphasize the importance of selecting multiple colonies per sample, and where possible, the use of both enrichment and non-enrichment isolation procedures to maximize the likelihood of recovering multiple subtypes present in a sample. Moreover, the effects of subtype-specific recovery bias should be considered in the interpretation of strain prevalence data towards improved risk assessment from microbiological surveillance data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".