The Value of Urgency: Evidence from Real-Time Congestion Pricing
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In Becker (1965) and neoclassical microeconomic theory the value of time is a constant fraction of the hourly wage. When taken to data, however, this value departs from theoretical predictions, and appears to vary with the amount of time saved. By observing drivers on freeways opting to enter toll lanes with high-frequency, time-varying prices that secure a minimum level-of-service, we uncover a new and fundamental aspect of preferences for travel time savings related to urgency. The presence of preferences for urgency, which reflect the fact that individuals often face discrete penalties for being late, allows us to reconcile the pattern observed in the data with neoclassical theory. Using a rich, repeated-transaction data and individual-level hedonic estimation, we show that the value of urgency accounts for 87 percent of total willingness-to-pay for time savings. As a result, ignoring the value of urgency in cost-benefit analysis severely underestimates the true value of time savings that projects deliver, as such omission will typically ignore non-trivial welfare gains to a potentially large number of individuals.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".